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首页 > 物流资讯 > 彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

2018-09-12 19:51:00 中美贸易战 国际贸易

9月11日,美国主流媒体彭博社(Bloomberg)刊登了一篇标题为《中国如何应对变化中的美国?》(How Should China Respond to a Changing U.S.?)的署名文章,引起了国外各界的广泛关注。


彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!
△彭博社报道截图

该文章摘编自傅莹——全国人民代表大会外事委员会副主任委员、中国社科院全球战略智库首席专家——2018年8月28-29日在亚洲协会等机构的演讲《中美今天的选择决定未来两国关系》。


文中傅莹对当下中美关系、美国对华态度发表了如下看法:



1、【美国对中国的态度发生变化】


傅莹在文章中谈到,她在最近访美期间,发现美国人对华态度变了。美国学者普遍认为,“在美国帮助中国加入世贸组织、实现经济腾飞之后,中国没有按照美国期待的方式发展,美方对此感到失望。相反,在与中国的经贸交往中,中国占了美国的便宜,美国更担心中国在全球经济和技术阶梯上的快速提升。美方还认为在军事上受到被中国‘挤出’亚洲的威胁。


The U.S. was frustrated at not having shaped China in its own image, despite bringing the country into the World Trade Organization and helping to enable its economic takeoff. Instead, China had “ripped off” the U.S. by taking advantage of it in trade and business. There was concern at how fast China was climbing up the global economic and technological ladder, and that its military was threatening to “elbow out” the U.S. from Asia.



2、【如何改善中美关系


傅莹认为,首先中国应该思考一个问题:美国的指责是否公允?

……the Chinese people first have to ask whether U.S. criticisms are fair.


中国的确没有随着经济增长而接受美国的政治制度。然而,“在见证了“颜色革命”和“阿拉伯之春”给一些国家带来的后果之后,美国应该庆幸,中国并没有走上政治动荡或经济混乱的歧途,而是保持总体社会稳定,成功走出一条符合自身国情的经济发展道路,为全球经济做出了贡献。

In fact, given what’s happened to some countries since the “color revolutions” and the “Arab Spring,” the U.S. should be thankful that its efforts haven’t thrown China into political turmoil and economic chaos. The fact that China has maintained social and political stability and followed its own economic path has contributed to global economic growth.


中国经济的快速发展的确是充分利用了美欧推动的全球化带来的机遇。勤劳的中国人有效使用了国际资金、技术、经验和市场,促进了工业化进程。数以亿计的中国人民摆脱了贫困,人民生活水平取得巨大提升。

True, China’s fortunes have risen as well. Taking advantage of the globalization promoted by the U.S. and Europe, hardworking Chinese gained access to global capital, technologies, expertise and markets, all of which facilitated the growth of industry. Hundreds of millions of Chinese came out of poverty, and living standards in the country have risen substantially.



3、【中国在全球化过程中的角色】


不可否认的有两点:首先,中国的工人在发展的过程中也承受了巨大的代价,在加入WTO以后,国内企业突然直接面对国际竞争,多数产业陷入困难,有的甚至难以为继,大量工人下岗。

After entering the World Trade Organization, Chinese enterprises were suddenly thrown into direct competition with global peers. Many of them didn’t survive, leading to huge layoffs all over the country.


此外,中国的发展同样惠及美国。牛津研究院估计,从中国进口的低价商品帮助普通美国家庭平均每年节省850美元。从2001年到2016 年,美国货物贸易对华出口增长500%,远高于同期对全球出口90%的增幅。万物联网时代的到来和中国快速增长的中高收入消费者群体的出现,将为美国公司提供更多机会。

China’s gains have benefited the U.S. as well. According to Oxford Economics, U.S.-China trade helps each American family save $850 every year. Between 2001 and 2016, U.S. commodities exports to China expanded five times, much higher than the 90 percent average increase. The advent of the “internet of things” and rapid growth in the number of China’s middle- and upper-class consumers will offer even more opportunities for U.S. companies.


因此,面对变化中的美国,面对美国的强硬但混乱的声音,傅莹认为,我们需要保持淡定,重要的是聚焦自身发展,解决好自己的问题。

The Chinese have to stay cool-headed in the face of tough but confusing messages from the U.S. We must stay focused on China’s development, and overcome our own difficulties.



4、【中国对美国态度如何】


傅莹表示,中国没有对美采取更加对抗的态度。因为,中国对美政策是整体外交政策的组成部分,而中国外交政策的目标是维护一个和平的外部环境和合作的国际关系, 以服务于国家的发展。

China is not adopting a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. Its current attitude is part of its overall foreign policy, which is aimed at ensuring a sound environment that facilitates effective cooperation with the outside world to serve China’s development goals.



5、【中国如何应对中美贸易摩擦】


傅莹坦陈,中美关系的变局对中国也是又一次倒逼改革的机会。中国政府正在进一步推进开放:国家主席习近平今年四月宣布的11项开发市场的具体承诺,迄已落实8项,涉及银行、证券、保险、评级、征信、支付等。政府也在下大力气改善营商环境,加强对中外企业知识产权的保护。中国的改革者可以将外部压力转化为动力,打破阻力、实现必要的改革成效。

In fact, changes in U.S.-China relations may help to push China’s own desired reforms. The government is, in fact, opening up: Eight out of the 11 market-opening measures announced by President Xi Jinping in April have been put in place, covering banking, securities, insurance, credit rating, credit investigation and payment, and so on. The government is also working harder to improve the business environment and strengthen intellectual property protections for both Chinese and foreign enterprises. Chinese reformers can turn outside pressure to their advantage, using it to bust through internal resistance to necessary changes.


但有一点必须清楚:中方绝不会屈服于关税霸凌。有些言论声称贸易战使中国经济“滑坡”,还有人认为可以期待中国屈服了。这只是一厢情愿。

But make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S. bullying over trade. There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war. Some expect China to succumb soon. I can tell you that this is wishful thinking.


傅莹在文章结尾处表示,“中国应继续与美方沟通。……中方有责任坚持对话,逐步澄清双方的一致点和分歧点,以拆解矛盾和解决问题、抑或管理难题的方式,渡过中美关系的险滩激流。”

But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes.


最后,傅莹引用了一个俚语,说明中国仍然会坚持主张,继续保持对话合作。“当然,那些一心寻求对抗的人或许不会对这个途径感兴趣。但是——让我借用一个俚语——如果有些人想追逐蝴蝶,其他人为什么要随之起舞呢?

Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now. But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?


彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

傅莹的文章阐明了中国对待中美贸易摩擦的态度以及对中美关系未来走势的看法,然而,她的观点并非一家之言,此前,许多外媒的报道也印证了中方对中美贸易摩擦持有的一贯态度。



美国贸易战不只针对经济】


《南华早报》在8月19日发表题为《不只关税:中国将贸易战视为美国新的牵制政策》。


彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

文章称,作为延缓中国经济和科技崛起的众多战略之一,贸易战与美国近期的其他举动,都是为了制约中国的国际影响力。

As part of a wider strategy to slow China’s economic and technological rise, the trade war joins other recent moves by the US to rein in China’s global influence.



特朗普搬起石头砸自己的脚】


洛杉矶时报4月5日的报道《特朗普的贸易战不会达成他的目的,反而会伤害美国的工人和消费者》表明,特朗普的政策只会搬起石头砸自己的脚。


正如傅莹所说,“中国的发展惠及美国”,打击中国贸易,则会殃及池鱼。该报道称,特朗普的政策将损害制造业、农业以及投资领域。


经济领域风险最大的是美国的制造业……以及农业,中西部的豆农以及加州的坚果种植主,都将面临国外市场的巨大损失。

The economic sectors most at risk are American manufacturing,……and agriculture, where growers of soybeans in the Midwest and nuts in California face the loss of significant foreign markets.


特朗普的政策还会损害中国投资流入美国,受此威胁尤为严重的是加州,因为中国对美国直接投资的四分之一都流向了加州。

Trump's policies also threaten the flow of Chinese investment into the U.S.; that's a particular threat to California, which has been the destination for one-fourth of all Chinese direct investment in the U.S.


《南华早报》6月22日的报道《特朗普的贸易战中,美国企业受伤首当其冲》。


彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

美国的彼得森国际经济研究所研究院Mary Lovely和Yang Liang在一份研究中表示,“特朗普301条款的关税政策是商业目标,但它对美国自身利益的损害远高于对它的预期目标。”

“President Trump’s Section 301 tariffs are a commercial own goal in that they harm American interests more than their intended targets.”



【中国在自我改革】


傅莹在文章中说,贸易战倒逼中国的改革,同时,中国应自身做大做强。《外交学者》杂志网站发表的一篇评论文章《美中贸易摩擦的更大威胁》称,中国正在积极降低对贸易的依赖。


中国正在持续地、成功地降低对贸易的依赖:出口总量占GDP的比重已经从2007年的超过30%下降到去年的不到20%;同时,对美国的出口也从近9%下降到4%。

But China has been making a concerted, successful push to reduce its dependence on trade: the share of total exports in its gross domestic product fell from over 30 percent in 2007 to under 20 percent last year; during that same time, the share of exports to the United States fell from approximately 9 percent of China's economy to just over 4 percent.


CNBC在9月10的报道《特朗普针对中国的贸易战会引发“反常行动”,CLSA经济学家称》


彭博社发表的这篇文章 算是把中美当下的复杂问题彻底讲透了!

文章引用里昂证券首席经济学家Eric Fishwick的观点,称“(贸易战)可能会引发反常行动,使得中国增加供给……变得越来越自给自足,生产越来越多高科技产品。这肯定会鼓励中国采取更多措施加强其政治和经济影响力。”

"It may well have the perverse reaction of accelerating China's attempts to move up the supply curve ... to become self-sufficient (in) more and more high-tech products. And it will certainly encourage China in its moves to build more and more political and economic spheres of influence,"


此外,他还谈到,在经济发展方面,中国一直致力于向高科技产业迈进,其“中国制造2025”计划旨在夯实、提高机器人和电动汽车等领域的制造业实力。

On the economic development front, China has been on a mission to move toward high-tech industries, with its Made in China 2025 plan seeking to establish manufacturing strength in areas such as robotics and electric vehicles.



中国无心恋战,贸易战无法挫伤中国发展】


《华盛顿邮报》9月7日的文章《特朗普威胁对价值2670亿美元的中国商品征收关税,将贸易战扩大到中国进口美国的所有商品》表示,中国并无意扩大贸易战。


文章引用康奈尔大学经济学家、IMF中国区前总裁Eswar Prasad的观点,称“特朗普的言论表明他想要升级贸易战直到中国认输的意图,但是中国也明确表明,无意这样做。”

Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division. "Trump’s remarks confirm his intention to continue escalating trade sanctions until China capitulates, and China has equally clearly signaled it has no intention of doing so."


对于贸易战影响中国经济发展的观点,美联社的报道也呼应了傅莹的观点。“这只是一厢情愿”。


AP在9月11日的文章《如果美国增加关税,中国则会反击》称,“7月和8月,尽管美国关税增加,但中国对美国的出口贸易出其不意地呈现两位数增长。这也许会增加美国的挫败感,促使他们增加进口管制。”

China's exports to the United States have been unexpectedly resilient, rising by double digits in July and August despite the US tariff hikes. That might add to Washington's frustration and prompt more import controls.


来源:中国日报
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